SEC Unlikely To Greenlight Ethereum ETF Until Late 2025: TD Cowen
Investment bank TD Cowen has pushed back its predicted timeline for U.S. approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) until late 2025 at the earliest.
Key Predictions:
- Spot Ether ETF decision not expected before late 2025.
- SEC Chair Gensler has no political incentive to accelerate.
- Seeks to avoid fighting with progressives critical of crypto
- Gensler’s term expires in June 2026.
The updated analyst view casts doubt on whether any spot Ethereum funds get regulatory blessings this cycle. Despite over half a dozen ETF applications awaiting verdicts, delays continue mounting.
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Ethereum ETF approval is likely to happen in 2025
Jaret Seiberg, the leader of TD Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note on Monday, “We do not expect the SEC to approve a spot Ethereum ETF in 2024.”
TD Cowen’s Washington Research team argues Gensler must tread carefully by neither provoking Congressional Democrats skeptical of crypto nor moving faster than he intends on key product approvals.
The bank notes that progressive support remains essential for advancing Gensler’s agenda this election year and potentially securing a role like Treasury Secretary in any Biden second term.
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So confronting crypto skeptics over spot Ethereum risks political capital with minimal upside currently. From both a legacy and continuity stance, the SEC has incentives for restraint through 2024.
Moreover, the agency has adopted an incremental philosophy towards crypto expansions like spot Bitcoin ETFs or Ethereum oversight. While frustrating for applicants, this measured tactic affords maximum flexibility to enact tighter rules in response to issues arising post-approval.
TD Cowen suggests that, due to the SEC’s ability to easily delay or dismiss ETF applications using standard administrative procedures, it might take several more years before any final decisions are made, unless there’s significant outside influence.
